Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga The Fed dan Suku Bunga Bank Indonesia Terhadap Portfolio Investment Di Indonesia
Abstrak
Era globalisasi telah menyebabkan peningkatan arus aliran modal antar negara, khususnya dari negara-negara maju ke negara-negara berkembang. Aliran modal (capital flow) dalam perekonomian suatu negara merujuk pada pergerakan modal keuangan (seperti uang, investasi, dan aset finansial) antar negara. Secara teori, fluktuasi aliran modal ini dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor, yang secara umum diklasifikasikan menjadi push-factors (faktor eksternal) dan pull-factors (faktor internal). Salah satunya di antaranya adalah suku bunga yang menjadi faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap keputusan untuk berinvestasi di suatu negara. Suku bunga memainkan peranan penting dalam menarik aliran modal dalam bentuk aset portfolio investment ke suatu negara termasuk Indonesia. Fokus penelitian ini kemudian mengkaji terkait pengaruh tingkat suku bunga The Fed dan Bank Indonesia terhadap aliran modal portfolio investment di Indonesia dalam kurun waktu antara 2011-2022. Dengan menggunakan permodelan regresi linier berganda, penelitian ini menunjukkan hasil bahwa secara parsial suku bunga Bank Indonesia berpengaruh positif terhadap fluktuasi portfolio investment di Indonesia, namun suku bunga The Fed tidak berpengaruh siginifikan, serta secara simultan kedua variabel bebas berpengaruh signifikan terhadap perubahan portfolio investment. Hasil ini selaras dengan analisa deskriptif dalam penelitian ini terkait kebijakan moneter yang dilakukan oleh Bank Indonesia sebagai faktor dominan yang berpengaruh serta iklim investasi di Indonesia yang dianggap relatif kuat terhadap pengaruh dari faktor eksternal.
Referensi
Ahmed, S. and Zlate, A. (2014) ‘Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?’, Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, pp. 221–248. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.05.015.
Bado, B., Samudera, A. and Ma’ruf, M.I. (2019) ‘Analisis aliran modal asing ke indonesia dengan Pull and push factors’, Jurnal Ad’ministrare, 5(2), p. 77. Available at: https://doi.org/10.26858/ja.v5i2.7884.
Bahr, K. and Maas, W. (2008) ‘Fed Funds Rate and Interest Rate Elasticities’, Journal of Finance Issues, 6(1), pp. 101–108. Available at: https://doi.org/10.58886/jfi.v6i1.2427.
Bank Indonesia (2023) Tentang BI.
Calvo, Leiderman and Reinhart (1996) ‘Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s’, Journal of Economic Perspectives., pp. 123–139.
Clarida, R.H., Duygan-Bump, B. and Scotti, C. (2021) ‘The COVID-19 Crisis and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response’, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 2021(034), pp. 1–23. Available at: https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2021.035.
Clark, J. et al. (2020) ‘Emerging market capital flows and U.S. monetary policy’, International Finance, 23(1), pp. 2–17. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/infi.12355.
Eichengreen, B. and Gupta, P. (2015) ‘Tapering talk: The impact of expectations of reduced Federal Reserve security purchases on emerging markets’, Emerging Markets Review, 25, pp. 1–15. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2015.07.002.
Feng, C. et al. (2023) ‘Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows’, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 82, p. 101693. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101693.
Forbes, K.J. and Warnock, F.E. (2012) ‘Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment’, Journal of International Economics, 88(2), pp. 235–251. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.03.006.
Fratzscher, M. (2012) ‘Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis’, Journal of International Economics, 88(2), pp. 341–356. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.05.003.
Garg, R. and Dua, P. (2014) ‘Foreign Portfolio Investment Flows to India: Determinants and Analysis’, World Development, 59, pp. 16–28. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.01.030.
Goldberg, L.S. and Krogstrup, S. (2023) ‘International capital flow pressures and global factors’, Journal of International Economics, p. 103749. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103749.
Lang, M. et al. (2020) ‘Regulatory cooperation and foreign portfolio investment’, Journal of Financial Economics, 138(1), pp. 138–158. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.04.016.
Ledóchowski, M. and Żuk, P. (2022) ‘What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed’s and ECB’s balance sheet policies’, Emerging Markets Review, 51, p. 100881. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2021.100881.
Mara, M.Y.I. et al. (2021) ‘Capital flow and banking credit in Indonesia’, Economic Modelling, 95, pp. 298–310. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.02.047.
Murau, S. (2017) ‘Shadow money and the public money supply: the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis on the monetary system’, Review of International Political Economy, 24(5), pp. 802–838. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2017.1325765.
Ostry, J.D. et al. (2012) ‘Tools for managing financial-stability risks from capital inflows’, Journal of International Economics, 88(2), pp. 407–421. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2012.02.002.
Siahaan, A. and Panahatan, J.P. (2020) ‘ANALYSIS OF IMPACT OF YIELD, INTEREST RATES, U.S FED RATES, AND INFLATION ON PRICE OF GOVERNMENT BONDS IN INDONESIA’, Emerging Markets : Business and Management Studies Journal, 6(2), pp. 59–74. Available at: https://doi.org/10.33555/ijembm.v6i2.112.
Siamat, D. (2005) Manajemen Lembaga Keuangan: Kebijakan Moneter dan Perbankan. Kelima. Jakarta: Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia.
Simarangkir and Hayati (2020) ‘Analisis Keterkaitan Foreign Direct Investment Dan Foreign Portfolio Investment Serta Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Tahun 2004 – 2017’, DIPONEGORO JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS, pp. 60–71.
