Pengaruh Pdrb, Suku Bunga Dan Inflasi Terhadap Permintaan Uang Di Sumatera Utara Perspektif Teori Ppermintaan Uang Periode 2018q1–2025q2

Abstract

The demand for money is an important indicator in the economy that reflects the economic activity of the community and the stability of the regional financial system. The development of the demand for money in North Sumatra Province during the 2018Q1–2025Q2 period showed an upward trend along with the growth of economic activity of the community. However, changes in macroeconomic conditions such as Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), interest rates, and inflation are expected to influence the dynamics of the demand for money in the region. This study aims to analyze the influence of GRDP, interest rates, and inflation on the demand for money in North Sumatra Province from the perspective of Keynes's demand for money theory. This study uses quantitative research methods with descriptive and associative approaches. The data used are secondary quarterly data for the 2018Q1–2025Q2 period obtained from Bank Indonesia (BI), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), and the Financial Services Authority (OJK). The analysis method used is multiple linear regression with the natural logarithm (Ln) model. Based on the research results, the regression equation obtained is lnY = -11.234 + 2.028lnX1 – 0.061X2 + 0.002X3 + e. The partial test results show that the GRDP variable has a positive and significant effect on the demand for money with a coefficient value of 2.028 and a significance value of 0.000. The interest rate variable (BI Rate) has a negative and significant effect on the demand for money with a coefficient value of -0.061 and a significance value of 0.000. Meanwhile, inflation has a positive but insignificant effect on the demand for money with a coefficient value of 0.002 and a significance value of 0.753. The simultaneous test results show that the GRDP, interest rates, and inflation variables together have a significant effect on the demand for money with an F count of 79.000 and a significance value of 0.000. In addition, the Adjusted R Square value of 0.985 indicates that 98.5% of the variation in the demand for money can be explained by the independent variables in this study, while the remainder is influenced by other variables outside the research model.